TFP Letter: Upbeat ADP sends S&P into 1544

5 min ES

Following a upbeat ADP employment figure the S&P 500 futures traded into our Monday evening target of 1544.25, the high for Wednesday is now 1544.75. Support is 1540 down to 1533.75, resistance is 1545-50.

After the ES push into highs i would not expect a ton more upside because crude oil failed to move up with risk, actually crude made a fresh day low following ADP.  (ADP printed 198K vs the Expectation of 170K)

5 min NQ

Nasdaq futures are higher by 7 points to 2805.25 with support being 2800-2802 and the high 2809.25. Over the high we could see 2815 though for this both Apple and Google will have to play nice with each other.. under 2800 its 2789.
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The 30 year bond has broken down into a low for the week of 142’24 after the 143’29 level gave way which leaved downtrending support at 142’19 support, as pictured on the right.

 In reaction to the positive ADP figure the DX is higher by 0.14% to 82.26 up from the 82 level which acted as support tuesday night and Wednesday morning, 82.33 is resistance.

15 min ZB

I would like to see the DX bid subside before cash open but highly unlikely.


Gold and Silver futures acted out following the ADP figure as silve moed up from 28.60 support to 28.80 resistance. Thus over 28.80 we could see 29 and under 28.60 sell stops into 28.50.

5 min CL

As for gold 1571.50 is support and 1580 is resistance, wait for a break up over or a break under if you want to take a scalp. Do not get married to gold or silver, they will break your heart, trust me.

Crude futures are pointing lower despite the fact her risk basket peer’s are higher.  After breaking out into 91.17 CL traded along 91 until early Wednesday morning where she fell quickly back to 90.50 support which now is 90.41. Below 90.41 its 90.25/90 quickly.

Tuesday’s CL low has a magnet on it at 90. On the flip side over 90.17 its 91.25 as next resistance into 91.50.

Copper is unchanged at 3.51 with support at 3.50 to watch for sell stops under. resistance is 3.54. My guess FCX will not be very active off the open.

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Shares of GOOG are slightly higher to 842, with 840 as support though 835-38 is more solid support from tuesday. IF 840 can hold a move into 850 could seal GOOG’s deal and initiate some profit taking.

Apple shares remarkably are higher to 432 up from 431.44 close after 430 held as support. A trade over 415.01 will likely cause a buying rush into 440, which any upside for apple is good for the apple tree.  Under 425 its back to 420/418.32 Tuesday pre market low.

Watch the emerging market etf EDC for a move into 104 today.  117 is TLT support, under = sell stops.

Looking for a break out over 159.77 in ICE today for a move over 160.