As you can see from the daily interval chart to the left, it is indeed Hammer Time!
The green circled candle is very bullish, as we have clearly closed above medium term resistance(23.03), i would expect a bit of sideways consolidation after a move like this going into the weekend.
Though on a longer horizon i would look for UUP to trade higher following the uptrend clearly put in place starting in late Nov, early Dec 2009.
The Dollar party might have started months ago, but the guests of honor have arrived. The guest of honor is… YOU… The average investor in my opinion is just now starting to put actual dollars into DOLLAR longs.
Today’s price actin between the dollar and equities is once again back in line with months past, where you see dollar up… market down. As of late the two have been trading in tandem, Gold confirming this relationship, down more than 2$ on a rush to the dollar. If Europe does indeed end up going ballistic the UUP could rocket clear to 26 bucks in a sharp rise, much like its previous spike post market collapse 2008.
As for the markets recent “weakness” i think it is merely technical. With the VIX sitting at clear support around16 and clearly oversold nature of the VIX’s oscillators, a pullback is healthy and welcomed. Kinda funny how the real world seemingly random market influencing events align with technicals on a chart…
A little forward thinking here…Maybe the market is going to throw us another curve ball this summer, actually producing higher volume trading. I would be ready for this. The markets are doing exactly what we do not expect them to do when in a “finicky over shot stage”of rally. This stage of a rally sucks the shorts dry who have not switched gears.