If you follow me on twitter you know today i just about lost my mind. Today had all the trapping of another bullshit zig zag up at resistance in the Spooz. The trappings included the standard overnight offer taking at random times and at random prices pushing the SPOOZ up to 1146.75 in the wee hours of the morning, 3am. This helped moved the futures a bit higher into the Wednesday mid morning.
Here is our range today, we had about six major move/pivots/trend changes whatever. These moves are highlighted in the chart above and numbered.
1. Rallied off opening lows of 1138.75 to 1142
2. Sold off from 1142 to 1137.75 then back up to 1141.75
3. Sold off from 1142 down to 1135.75
4. We rocketed off 1135.75 straight up to 1144 in about 1.5 hours
5. we chopped around 1142 -1144 until we puked very hard from 11144 to 1136
6. After we touched 1136.75 we shot straight back at 1141 where the futures settled
You tell me how you are supposed to gauge this, a trader always wants a market to be moving around, though this kind of crazy violent chop in short periods of time is brutal. Transaction cost goes up, confidence goes down, and the ability to hold onto a position with confidence is greatly diminished. What is the market telling us? i believe the market is telling us there is no more upside, as the big index components are failing to make new highs, cough AAPL crashing 14 points cough, BAC selling most of the day today, GS weak etc.
the last blue circle is interesting in the chart, notice the huge selling 40k contracts right after the REGULAR session closed. This selling did not move the market down, though a 2k contracts or so moved it up 2 handles.
Take away from my tweets and market thoughts as much as you can handle, as this chop is definitely giving market participants the feeling there is a hell of a lot of indecision in the market.
ASLO.. for those who are not aware.. emini futures close at 4:15 allowing for a 15 min break then they resume trading at 4:30 which is considered the overnight session. The regular market closes at 4, though SPY options do trade for 15 min after the close.