The Week Ahead.. Jobs & Housing (SPX)
The start to the coming week will be fairly quiet on the economic calendar front, though the later part of the week things will heat up. Tuesday we have September housing starts (consensus 575k prior 598k), these numbers should carry a bit more volatility potential with the current robo signing scandal picking up steam. Wednesday we have the Fed’s Beige book, mainly fluff, the real meat and potatoes comes Thursday the 21st as we have initial jobless claims(consensus 550k), continuing claims(consensus 4400k) both @ 8:30 est. Philadelphia Fed releases their data on September manufacturing activity @ 10am est on the 21st as well.
The jobs data will be the last major release before November elections, keep this in mind if you are planning on spread trading the new OPEX cycle, which this past Friday ended the October cycle. I expect a few surprises though it seems the market still has its perma bid which is not going to go away anytime soon with
all the excitement over QEII. I personally hope the damn thing sinks before leaving the harbor, though i wish for a lot of things which never materialize. If you trade what you see and not what you think you are much better off then predicting the future. We all know this market is broken and not connected to the real economy, Art Cashin said it best in his latest letter. Focus on the quote, “hyperinflation would be destructive to civilization.’
As for futures levels, we are still in a fairly tight upward trending channel with 1175-1180 being the immediate term resistance and 1165-1155 being the lower edge of last weeks trading range. Granted we chopped around a little above and below those levels, though stickiest levels are the ones you should most focus on.
Futures are currently trading down ahead of NYC open, lets see how we do after the 2-4am ramp.