Refer to below for my thoughts on Oil (played out 100%) and ES pinch, which did indeed play out
Friday march 23 ES_F.
5 min zoom ES march 22
Welp Thursday was another roller coaster day with many historical correlations loosening, biggest being the DX/6E relationship with equities following China’s tepid PMI. Bonds really did not do much today basically holding onto Wednesday’s gains.
Bonds still do look weak in my opinion as money continues to flow into equities and out of bonds, slowly that is.
Commodity markets were roiled by China as you know, crude moving around willy nilly, new support is 104.50 and resistance 106. Over 106 we get 107.50 below 105 we test 104.50 then lower. Risk on and risk off.
As for the the ES, we have been minding a downtrend from wednesday mornings high into the pre market ledge of 1397 when China PMI broke. below 1382.5 clearly we have air down into 1380. The pivot i am watching is 1392.25, which if fails will turn into a pinch into higher prices of 1395. keep it simple.