With bonds falling into their lowest levels since late October 2012 you must take a look at what resides below the 120 level TLT and the 143 level in the 30 year future.
WE have mentioned in past the day we get a solid down day in fixed income will be a violent up-day in equities. If you were short into the move id would take your profits and coast into the holiday with as small a bias as possible because if we get a resolution it most likely will be a sell the news scenario.
Under 120 in TLT you have the probe low in october of 118.50 then the 115 solid support level from the gap up in April as commodities started to sell off into June. Under 115 you have support @ 109.69 the low before the market softened in late spring.
The 30 year future on the other hand is a smilar chart and trajectory with 145 being a definitive line in sand for bond price bulls. under 145 we have the 144’16 low from 9/14/2012 to navigate. Under this metric you could be back to 142’01 where the massive rally off March 2012 lows of 135’05 started in anticipation of QE III and european woez.