TFP market summary for February 25, 2013
|5 min ES.. showing highs & lows|
Mutual fund monday turned out to be a day of mutual selling….. What drove the tape today IMO was not so much the Italian election results and the possibility of gridlock in the Italian Senate but was a tsunami of flows into bonds coupled with YEN/DX strengthening.
|15 min CL|
This tsunami hit precisely @ the 10 am ET hour as the ES came off a retest of 1424.75 which failed 8.25 straight handles into 1515.25 or so followed by a small rotation of 2.5pts when looking as the ES 1 min chart rotation on lower left..
|5 min ES rotations|
By the point 1510 failed the 30 year bond was over 143’02 which launched a tirade of buying into 144’13. This final push of bonds into highs caused the the risk complex to let go of all bids completely.
What i mean by this is the ES failed 1500 while 6J (Japanese YEN FX futures) surged higher by 2.5% in minutes and the ES rotated down 21.5 handles during the last 1.5 hours of the day which created the low of 1481.75 bringing the day drop jus shy of 40pts peak to trough.
We tweeted before the market started to really cascade on @TPF_insider
the support levels and their probably outcome when breached.
Also gold and silver retraced much of last weeks drop back to 1597 as some fear premium baked back into the dough… Me thinks this comes out if the market chills out, 1600 a big level though, both resistance and support wise.
|1 hour ZB –|
When looking @ the NQ the last hour collapse pushed it below 2700 into 2791.75 low before it popped back over the key metric. Resistance is 2710 followed by 2720, the level of the last hour break down.
NQ support is 2700, under its 91.75 under = 2775. Currently the NQ is trading for 2708.63 +6.25 from close.
|1 hour GC|
The ES currently is trading for 1491.25 +4pts from the close.. Resistance is 1492 all the way up into 1500 support 1488-85.. If the 85 level fails this evening its easily back to 81.75s; under lows means 1475’s.
Trade what you see not what you think.. I thought we would move into 1530 today.. but what i saw was different. It took the failure of 1510 to trip my logic into looking for lower prices though, but i did not have to think as 1510 was already on the radar.
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