TFP market summary for March 11th, 2013
S&P 500 E-mini Future
|5 min ES|
The action in the mini’s this morning could be summed up in two words.. constructive consolidation…This until bonds became offered around 9:00 am CT and the ES moved up off over 1543, not stopping until 1551.75 traded in the minutes following cash close…
On the downside 1540.50 is support (and session low) from this morning, noted with the red arrow in the chart above….This makes 1542 the event horizon before the algo’s go for stop blood. Today’s volume was abysmal but what is average volume anymore?
Keep in mind the higher prices go the less amount of shares/contracts have to change hands to move the same $ amount thus the higher we go volumes move lower, this is not necessarily a bad or bearish theme. Just a product of higher prices.
The next part of the equation is fresh $ coming in to push prices into new highs which should THEN cause volumes to level out because new price levels will be trading and not just compounding.
Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
|15 min NQ|
The NQ traded lethargically off the open breaking the 2800 level before supporting @ 2790 level before bouncing….
The bounce was a product of AAPL holding 425.14 support which allowed for an attempt, per our idea from the morning letter; at the 430 level. Buyers stepped in converting 430 into support & about 20min later apple traded 439.
Per the chart on the right IF the 430 level can HOLD as support tomorrow in apple the price then can build a base for a move to 454.95. Do not count on it, but apple has been a beaten dog for months now; when a turn around happens it should be quick.
That being side 2805 is immediate support in the NQ with 2810 remaining as resistance which if broken to upside could mean the index runs for late summer 2012 highs of 2871.75.
|15 min AAPL|
Google already at record highs, PCLN GOOG, MSFT, CSCO, AMZN to name a few are all doing ‘ok’ and the index is still over 2800…
..Add a stabilized apple and or a trading higher apple to the equation and the case for NQ/NDX all time highs has been made.
Oil for the most part put in a standard session today as the price traded around 91.75 all sunday evening and into monday AM. As the US started waking up CL bid gave way into 91.50, and per usual; as CL floor opened @ 9am ET the price got smoked from 91.75 to 90.90. Profit from this pattern…
|5 min CL|
The price of CL eventually leveled out once the algo orgy subsided and the price rose to 91.50 before breaking up out of a right shoulder of a inverse H&S to trade into 92.15..
So looking at the chart on the right as well as using the powers of hindsight we can surmise the morning drop was nothing more than a harvesting of the bid side of the book so they can later tip all the late shorts into covering into CL floor close. Which is exactly what happend.
Currently CL is trading for 92.07 and resistance to take out before higher prices are in order is 92.15; over 92.15 means 92.50.
|Weekly 6J (japanese YEN FX futures)|
Under 91.75 i can bet their will be 25 cents of air into the break out point of 91.50 from earlier in session.
If the YEN keeps weakening this evening and the DX continues to slide towards 82 CL buyers will likely dominate the tape. Funny thing is, the entire 1.5 months the DX has been rallying up from under 79 CRUDE has fallen from 99 a BBL to under 90.
|S1: 1547.50||S1: 2800||S1:92|
|S2: 1540.50||S2: 2790||S2: 91.75|
|R1: 1551.75||R1: 2810||R1: 92.25|
|R2: 1555||R2: 2815||R2: 92.50|