TFP market summary for march 19th 2013
SP 500 E-mini Future
|5 min ES. note the 1529.l75 level|
The S*P’s retraced much of the sunday evening drop with 1529.75 remaining the line in sand under the 1540 level.
Currently the SP’s are higher by 2.75 points to 1549.50 with 1550 as immediate resistance which has been putting up quite a fight… 1547.50 is the median between 40’s and 50’s imo…
The ledge from Friday is 1555, if this level is regained following a break over 1550 then it is back to 52 week highs. I know everyone hates to hear this but what can you do.. trade the market you have not the one you want.
FX & T-Complex
|1 hour DX|
The DX was bid today with resistance @ 83.10… Considering the USD is the best looking shandy in the shanty town… it’s bid today was constructive in regards to the slum thesis.
Beyond that thesis the DX is still very much overbought on any metic going back 3 months though you cannot fight something which maybe irrational.
Currently support is 82.75, under = sell stop into the 82.50 gap from Friday’s close.. which would likely give the ES a slight boost but honestly the driver of the risk bus remains that of ZB and ZN…
|spy vs tlt 1 min|
The 30 year came into the session bid following the rejection of the 143’24 high from early monday morning. As cash markets opened the ZB was still bid at 143’04 which coincided to ES 1537.75. From this point the ES has bid and bonds offered all the way into ES 1552.25.
That being said take a look @ the TLT vs SPY chart on the right, that is your roadmap you must navigate turn by turn. If the ZB falls under 142’15 support its back to 141’28 gap fill ‘perhaps’ which would mea greater upside in ES into 1555.
Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
|1 hour NQ|
I will say nothing more than “apple +2.75%” and every other major component flat. So 2800 is resistance and 2810 over that.. 2775 is support under 2785.
Currently the NQ is +5.25 points @ 2792.25. IF for some crazy reason NQ breaks over 2810 tonight, the PINCH high is 2830.
|30 min CL..|
|inverse H&S 9:01 am CT|
The crude story today was that of laughter, joy & pain; depending upon your bias.
The session opened with CL diving from 93.10 @ floor open into a low of 92.14 16 minutes later.. This low created the head of a inverse H&S which if you were a subscriber to the TPF Insider twitter feed; you were shown the pattern @ 9:01 am CT when the price was @ 92.77.
Tonight’s take is under 94 we fall back to 93.75 over 94.32 its 95. Simple.
|R1: 1550.25||R1: 2795||R1: 94.34||R1: 947.6|
|R2: 1555.75||R2: 2800||R2: 94||R2: 950|
|S1: 1547.50||S1: 2790||S1: 94||S1: 942|
|S2: 1540||S2: 2780||S2: 93.75||S2: 936|
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