TFP Market Summary for Monday March 25, 2013
SP 500 E-mini Future
|1 hour ES|
I will keep this short and sweet… Today the market was dragged through the much by headline after headline out of the EU pertaining to the Cyprus mess. That being said, trade plans must be tweaked on the fly when irrationality of fear and greed takes over the tape.
The irrationality of the media who RT’s stories of complete BS do nothing but exacerbate already complicated issues. Today’s spoo chart is a perfect example of fear and greed as the ES traded into a new 2013 high of 1560.50 before headlines and rumors started swirling around 7 am CT. From this point on the SPoo was offered into 1555 which saw buyers defend off the open.
Shortly after we bounced to 1558 a rumor the EU was going to use the Cyprus “solution” as a “template” for the region caused a violent sell off into 1544.75 before a small rotation carried us back to 1549 before another tide of BS tweets and headlines hit the tape taking us into a low of 1539 before buyers bonds finally relented.
From this point on the ebb and flow between the 30 year and the spoo was on in full force as the ES moved back up to 1549. Dip buyers turned into knife catchers, but this is what happens; as is a risk of buying dips. Because a dip is only a dip until it bounces as a dip is not a dip if it continues to fall.
Currently the ES is higher by 2 points to 1549 with resistance on the 5 min @ 1552.25 with pinch risk @ 1555 into 1559.75. A break below 1545 wil send us back to 1540.25 if the move is coupled with a bond bid.
ES 1 hour support is 1534.95.. Keep in mind..
FX & T-Complex
|1 min DX showing the 81 print|
Reiterating what i mused above.. Positive bond flows did a number to the risk complex as the bond market is much larger than the equity market. @ exactly 7 am CT the bond/spoo spread trader lifted the T complex offers setting off the crush from 1560, he or she did not back off the tape until 1539 traded and ZB resisted 143’30..
|15 min DX. note arrows.|
Thus over 143’30 the spoo will be below 1539, a break below ZB support @ 143’09 will help solidify the ES bed over 1545.
The dollar rallied throughout the entire session as investors fled the slums of EUR into the not so slummy US dollar. The 83 level was highly magnetized which which is currently where the DX resides as of this writing.
|30 min ZB|
What strikes me as absurd is the pr
int into 81 early sunday in the DX before it rallied 2 points to make highs over 83. Talk about the fleecing of traders. My only thesis on dollar strength today is cash rotating out of euro/usd into DX..
The eur/usd fell to its lowest valuation against the dollar going back nearly 4 months @ 1.2837..
The eur/usd has been on a nearly straight down trajectory since 1/28/2013 where 1.3715 was placed as the 8 month high up from the July 2012 low of 1.2051. The euro is 50% between that january high and the july 2012 low. For what it is worth.
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Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
|1 hour NQ… note the 2770 level & 2810|
All i can say about today was, saved by Apple; in regards to NQ remaining over the 2770 support level. A move below would have triggered sell stops into 2755.
What is funny is the NQ did the typical HFT exacerbated POP of cash open into 2810.50 before collapsing 40 handles in matter of 45 minutes.
The being said.. NQ resistance to watch for a pinch over is 2790 with 2793 being first resistance before the 2800 gap is closed.. the gap i am referring to is the straight down move from 2810 to 2790 following cash open.
A break below 2780 means back to 2771 lows.. Apple needs to remain over 460 to cover the 469.95 high of the day to support before 470 is taking out.. below 460 its back to 455.. Rinse. repeat.
|30 min CL|
Talk about correlation breaks right? CL rallied 1.75 percent off NYMEX open this morning despite a incredibly strong dollar. As i mentioned in previous letters if the 94.47 high of last week gets taken out we trade into 95..
Well we traded into 95 and clear into 95.65, some argue it was the unwinding of the Brent/WTI crack spread which caused the rip. but i remain skeptical, but i am sure this exacerbated the price.
|5 min CL|
If you traded with a buy stop @ 94.55 you were highly rewarded with a quick flip of 1 dollar if you were quick and had your levels implanted in your head… remember for each point you make in CL per contract it is 1k bucks.
That being said CL is currently trading for 94.72 as the high today was faded with the quickness into 94, which held to the PENNY. Below 94.50 means sell stops into 94 .. resistance sits @ 94.80 thus a break over 95 means we could easily revisit based 95.50. Unless the DX relents and bonds fade i see little chance of CL moving back to highs barring any geo-political news in the next 12 hours.