TFP Morning letter for March 12, 2013 | $YUM $AAPL $COST
|30 min ES|
Good morning, currently the ES is lower by 3.25 points or -0.21% to 1547.25 with 1546 being immediate support.
The catalyst for the downside is not clear beyond the fact we have been making multi-year highs everyday going back almost a week.
That being said, the the tug of war between stocks and bonds currently has bonds winning as the 30 year has been bidding since it 140’18 early Monday evening.
Currently the 30 year bond i higher by 0.29% to 141’11, makes since because the ES is lower by 0.21%. The DX is also higher to 82.71 which is also weighing on the risk complex.
Bottom line, if the bonds and DX meander higher throughout today’s session the ES will continue to slip in my opinion below the 1545 level with 1540 being the line in sand before we move back into last week ES levels of 1537.75. Downside will come quick as it always does after lethargic moves into highs.
Over the last few days i have read much about the ‘triple top’ in the ES up at 1576.09 on the SPX, since we are not there yet it is not my concern; but macro sellers are def lurking on the tape taking 4 year profits. Not to be alarmed though it is only natural, thus if the ES can move back over 1550 today it is onward to 1555+.
Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
|NQ 5 min|
Same story today in the NQ which is down 0.22% to 2799.25, right in the middle of a 2810 / 2790 channel which has dictated the range for 5 session. Thus if the NQ can move over over 2810 there is a great chance of an extension into 2820 IF apple google et all show up on force.
On the downside if 2790 fails its going to be a quick trip back to the 2775 break out level from the 5th of March. The high for the month in NQ is 2818 though only traded as a wick off the open on 3/8 thus the level does not carry much weight.
Shares of Apple are lower, per usual; to 434.48 down from a 437.87 close Monday. I am looking for 434 to hold pre-market if not its back to 430 off the open which was the break out metric from monday as well. If apple drips, so will the nasdaq as the NQ led the market in summer 2012 but has lagged as of late, much to the thank of apple.
|5 min CL|
As of this writing Crude has reversed its earlier losses down into the 91.65 level to make a new high for the week at 92.64.
Resistance now is 92.80 with a target of 93.40 IF the 93 level can be converted into support at some point in the session. Under 92.50 it is likely back to 92 as the crude seller will likely take profits from this move as cash session approaches.
|1 hour CL|
If the DX stays bid and bonds stay firm CL should have trouble moving any higher than the 92.75 high which was placed as of this writing.
As noted earlier, shares of both Apple and Google are lower pre-market
|COST 4 hour|
Shares of YUM are higher to 71.71 with resistance @ 73.17 and support @ 71 following a upbeat EPS report after the close monday which revealed sales in Chinese same-store sales slipped 20% not the 25% expected. A move over 73 means 73.17 could be tested and if breach 75 is the target.
NFLX shares are slightly lower to 179.50 down from a 180.45 close. I am watching the 178 level was support off the open, if it fails last thursdays low of 176.16 becomes the last line of defense before 170 comes into play.
Shares of Costco are trading @ 103.91 just under its all time high of 104.35 following a upbeat quarterly report. My take is if the high can be taken out and converted to support 110 could be in the cards. A break under 103 could trigger selling into 102.50 then 101.85.
|S1: 1547.50||S1: 2798||S1:92.50|
|S2: 1540.50||S2: 2790||S2: 91.90|
|R1: 1551.75||R1: 2810||R1: 92.80|
|R2: 1555||R2: 2815||R2: 93.40|