TPF Morning Letter for March 27, 2013 | $TLT
SP 500 E-mini Future
Welcome to the new reality where the biggest moves happen in the hours between 1am and 8 am ET… Currently the ES is down 7.25 points or 0.45% to 1550.25, down from a WEEK highs of 1560.50 to the exact print.
To be honest i am not really sure why the euro has made 4 month lows down .65% to 1.287 beyond the fact Italian bond yields have plummeted and the same BS ‘no material’ headlines out of the EU being recycled.
That being said, the 1550 level is support though the price keeps moving above and below as i type this.. 1547.50 is the next line before 1545 monday support comes into play. Under 45 = 40 under 40 = 35 under 35 = 29.75.. UNDER 29.75 = 1515. Lets hope we do not get there today.
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FX & T-Complex
|5 min ZB . note break over 143’16|
The T complex has surged with the 30 year breaking into a high of 144’22 with 144’24 being the high form march 1st to watch for buy stops over…
This entire shit show started with the 30 year breaking over 143’16 @ 1:45 am CT just as the ES ticked on 1560.50. The DX held 83 and has traded systematically up into buy stops all the way into 83.45 where it currently resides +.50%.
|6E 5 min.|
IF the bonds break over 144’24 we are going to see 1545 come up quick. Couple a break out in bonds over 1 month highs with a failure of the 1.2769 low in 6E and you will see another surge lower.
Ebb and flow… That being said i believe the currency and bond complex has move to far to fast this morning with little catalyst beyond Italian bond yields dropping. Heck you could even say the break over 143 yesterday morning was the precursor for this entire move.
Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
|5 min NQ|
The NQ support is 2784 which is the low of the session resistance is 2790 with 2795 the pinch area for sell stops.
2780 is the lower line in sand before 2770 comes into play from early last week. Hopefully they will not be visited as Apple has traded into 456.61 pre-market but bounced back to 458, watch 456 off the open which will coincided with 2784.
|CL 5 min.. note “air” under 95.50|
Crude broke under the 96 level into 95.60 before bouncing back over 96 where it currently resides down 0.39%. Must of the oil weakness is related to the DX as the DX is up +.39% and CL down .39%.
Historically this has been the healthy correlation, which in my opinion discounts much of the panic we are seeing in the euro and bond market.
A break back over 96.1 would put the 96.20 level back into the sights of buyers, though a break under 96.58 will trigger a move back to 95. I am using 50c intervals because for the past two months crude has been moving 50c below and above intra-day support and resistance levels which coincide with highs and lows.
|R1: 1550.50||R1: 2790||R1: 96.05||R1: 942|
|R2: 1555.75||R2: 2595||R2: 96.20||R2: 944|
|S1: 1545||S1: 2780||S1: 95.90||S1: 939|
|S2: 1540||S2: 2775||S2: 95.59||S2: 935|