A Leaked non-farm payroll miss sent bond soaring into 2013 highs
SP 500 E-mini Future
|5 min ES|
I will keep this short and sweet, NFP came in @ +88k vs 190k, the largest miss in nearly 4 years.
If you want all the commentary on doom and gloom you know where to look, if you want price levels we got them.
Currently the spooz is lower by 1 percent to 1536.50 after trading into a low of 1534, if you refer back to last nights post we outlined what we expected to happend to the T following the event of a miss. We surmised a miss was not baked into stocks, well the spooz fell 20 handles in a print.
|30 min ES|
The line in sand is now 1534 with 1529.75 being the even
t horizon to watch for 15-20 points of sell stops under into 1500. A drop below 29s will put the spoos down just about 2% which will be largest drop of the year.
Perhaps something we needed? But alas this entire more was very ‘front ran’ by the treasury complex players and does not in anyway strike me as “out of the blue” as ADP and weekly claims were both hinting at something not so hot coming
No chance of a reversal unless 1540 becomes bid, over 1550 thats pain = pinch. Highly likely we break 34’s on the open into 29.75’s. Wait for the levels to break before you press, the market has lots of potential energy built up on the downside and upside.
FX & T-Complex
|15 min ZB|
Bonds as you know have been bid all week by a entity which clearly had the inside ‘look’ into what the department of labo had in store. Congratulations you made a billion dollars.
anyway the 30 year future traded 148 the highest level of 2013 and subsequently last seen december 30th of 2012.
The higher bonds go the lower the ES goes clearly, currently the ZB is under the high of the day at 147’22 up from 146’20 pre NFP print. Clearly over 148 ZB ES will be below 1433.
|1 hour ZB|
The DX fell to 82.31 down 0.28% which coincides with the YEN which retraced last nights drop to positive territory currently. All that dollar buying the last two weeks seems like it was not smelling the right flowers at this point….
The EURO got a large boost on the print, 1.3037 is the high +0.42%. currently 1.30 is the bid with 1.2975 as support and 1.3025 resistance. Now everyone fleeing dollar to buy euro but all want US bonds lol ? Everyone is confused.
Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
The NQ is down into its lowest level in a month, 2744.75 with 2740 as line in sand before we fall another 40 points. 2760 is resistance. But resistance does not matter when AAPL is down into mont lows of 423.50 pre-market .
|5 min CL|
OIL new low for the month is 91.91, currently CL is trading 92.43 down 0.89% after trading as high as 93.55 during the overnight. Thus 92 is support under means 91.91 will get tested and under means we visit 91.50 then 91.
With the dollar down, this probably is helping to keep crude losses in check. Also looks like crude players front ran the NFP anyway, so perhaps the selling is nearing an end after 7 points in a week?.
|R1: 1538.50||R1: 2745||R1: 92.50||R1: 910|
|R2: 1540.75||R2: 2760||R2: 93||R2: 915|
|S1: 1529.75||S1: 2735||S1: 92||S1: 907|
|S2: 1515||S2: 25725||S2: 91.91||S2: 905|
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