SP 500 E-mini Future
|5 min ES|
The spooz started Monday off in a frenzy as a confused bond market tried to digest the YEN arbs trying to hedge their exposure after another night of bid pounding of yen futures.
|1 min ES|
We tracked this bond / stock relationship in the TFP insider feed today, and noted the easy trade today was POST the 1 hour opening chop as the TLT and SPY diverged cleanly around 11:05am CT & proceeded to diverge into cash close where the ES rested just under 1559. (sign up for a free trial of the TFP insider Here)
|15 min ES|
Following the cash close AA reported a beat on the top end but missed on bottom end, coupled this with JCP CEO resigning; and the spooz reached into 1562.25 before it was all said and done.
In my opinion the last little push over 1558’s was those who shorted the pre-market breakdown under 1555 last Thursday, volume was light but not that light; BUT bonds falling steadily 100% helped keep the uptrend in tact despite a weak/unchanged euro and rising dollar.
The ZB ended the day down 0.70% at 147’05 which was about 10% out of line with ES which ended up +.85%. Watch for this slight lopsided divergence to close a bit as the evening progresses, would not be surprised if we see 1555; 1560 is currently support as of this writing.
|5 min ZB|
A break under 1560 means 1555 under 55 = 50 so on and so forth as the ES has been moving in 5 handle rips and dips the last few sessions. ALSO the spooz for the last 7 sessions or so has been alternating between RED and GREEN.
On the upside we have 1565 as resistance with 1563.50 the pinch, which will only be possible if ZB falls below 147 and continues to move lower without crazy pestering bids.
OVER 65’s mean we are back to 2013 highs of 1568, over 68’s mean 1572.50.
|5 min c|
That being said 6J devalued itself by another 1.50% today thereby in my opinion helping keep crude bid DESPITE the over 1% drop from CL highs of 93.75 into 92.46 (then lurched off that .50 metric back into 93.50).
Crude has been very attracted to the 91.50, 92, 92.50, 93, 93.50 metrics as of past few weeks. Keep that in mind.
|SPY VS TLT 1 min as of close. crescendo|
= divergence of spread
Under 92.50 = 92.. over 93.65 = 93.75 over = 94.
|spy vs tlt 1 min note open|