“Da’ Bonds” is all i really have to say about today’s price action but alas, the show must go on.
The show today ended on a green note (SPX added 0.40% to close at 1559.98), but caution still remains to the wind as the monthly jobs situation tomorrow @ 8:30 AM ET will reveal the likely catalyst for the large drop in bond yields over past week.
1 hour ES
The 30 year bond price rose from 145’04 to 146’13 before it was all said and done, this marks a 6 dollar move in bond prices since March 8, 2013, largely catalyzed by the the Cyprus levy which greeted us on the weekend of 3/15-3/17 as the 30yr gapped over 142 the Sunday of the 17’s breaking a multi-month downtrend.
The question now remains, what are investors fleeing currently? still worried about Cyprus (doubtful) worried about NFP (probable based on ADP and weekly claims) though if NFP comes in soft bonds surely have this baked in, but stocks? perhaps not so much.
30 min ZB
This means below 1544 we visit 1540-35, under 35 = 1529.75; March lows.. If 29’s fail the spoo could be in for a re-test of the 1500 level last seen 2/26. A failure of 1500 means we are back to early February lows of 1483.25. BUT 1500 still remains in tact thus we have to play it this way, you cannot put the cart before the horse.
4 hour ZB
Meaning we need to see confirmation before you start betting on a collapse because this could just be another buying opportunity IF NFP tomorrow comes in ok” and bonds fall off, ES could rocket clear to 1570 in a single print.
ON a crude note. the line in sand this evening… 93.23. under we mosey back to 93, especially if bonds keep on keepin’ on. Upside reversal level remains 93.5-55, and not a penny under.
Daily CL 91 the line in sand before we visit the W bottom @ 89.50
Are investors running scared or is there really something to be scared of? we shall see tomorrow.
Want the TFP Morning Letter delivered to your inbox by 9 am ET? Subscribe Here