SP 500 E-mini Future
|5 min ES|
We had a miss in initial claims and continuing claims, weekly that is; of 385K vs Exp of 353K. This print sent the 30 year over 146’05, its highest level in nearly 3 months. What is funny is DESPITE all this panic the ES is higher by 2.75 points or 0.18 percent @1551 down from 1556 pre-claims.
|15 min ES|
A break under 1550 means we visit 1545 again to repeat yesterday’s price action, 5 handle increments below supports is what we have been seeing so be aware.
A move back over 1556 means 1560 but from the looks of things we are not going back there as everyone all worked about up jobs all of a sudden, the spoo is up 250 points and no one cared about jobs; why now?
FX & T-Complex
|4 hour ZB|
The 30 year like mentioned above is higher by 0.60% to 146’07 making the 24 hour move over 1.50% almost to December resistance levels over 146’26.
IF BONDS keep playing this game of chicken with stocks i do not know who is going to win because yields are once again dropping to the point where owning bonds is like owning a non-performing asset; that is if stocks stay bid.
|1 hour DX|
As of this writing the spooz has gone unchanged @ 1548.75 though does not correlate to bonds being up .60% as in the past we see nearly 100% inverse correlation; thus something has to give.
Stocks or bonds, the data does not support both moving in tandem; including the dollar with made a new 5 month high of 83.66 it is up 0.84%.
|5 min ZB|
|15 min CL|
Oil is being liquidated 100%, there is no other explanation for how much crude has dropped this week than the DX making 5 month highs and bonds further causing risk off.
BUT still we have a spooz within 20 points of all time highs.
Currently oil is down 1.25% to 93.15 with the low being 93.03 to watch for sell stops under into 92.80; this momentum on downside is strong. only way crude reverses is if we move back over 94.50, under 94.50 the risk is to the downside.
|R1: 1550.50||R1: 2788||R1: 93.25||R1: 920|
|R2: 1555.75||R2: 2795||R2: 93.40||R2: 925|
|S1: 1545||S1: 2780||S1: 93||S1: 915|
|S2: 1540||S2: 2770||S2: 92.80||S2: 910|
Want the TFP Morning Letter delivered to your inbox by 9 am ET? Subscribe Here for $25mo.