Poll: Dems’ Lead in Generic House Race Is Shrinking

Poll: Dems' Lead in Generic House Race Is Shrinking

The Democrats’ lead over Republicans in a generic House ballot is down to 5 points, according to a new Monmouth University poll.


Forty-eight percent say if the election for the House was held today, they would back or lean toward supporting the Democratic candidate in their district. Forty-three percent would favor the Republican in the race.


Here’s how that compares to past Monmouth University polls:


  • 48 percent favored the Democratic candidate in June, compared to 41 percent who supported the Republican.
  • 49 percent back the Democrat in April, compared to 41 percent who favored the Republican.
  • 50 percent supported the Democrat in March, while 41 percent backed the Republican.

“While the overall generic ballot gap has gone from 9 points to 5 points over the past five months it is not clear whether this is significant movement toward the GOP given the poll’s margin of error,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.


“But these results do tell us that the Democrats have not been able to capitalize on anti-incumbent sentiment to break away from the Republicans on a national level.”


These are some other highlights from the poll released on Wednesday:


  • 61 percent say having experience in government and politics is a positive quality for a candidate for Congress, while 22 percent see it as a negative.
  • 52 percent say they would be more likely to support a congressional candidate who was a political outsider, compared to 25 percent who say they would support a political insider.
  • 28 percent rate healthcare policy the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in a congressional race and 19 percent say economic policy; 18 percent say immigration policy and 13 percent say gun control policy.

The poll, conducted August 15-19, surveyed 805 people. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.



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