Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar Read MORE

up. down. good. bad. “best economy ever”. “recession imminent”. record highs. record lows.

Chinese stocks were broadly flat overnight but tech-heavy ChiNext was weaker…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were all weaker today, accelerating lower after the Italian political chaos…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

Italian bond yields plunged today after the political chaos (likely delaying the budget-busting vote)…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

 

US equity markets gave back a good chunk of yesterday’s hype-fueled gains…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

 

Dow futures show the pump and dump best…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

 

Sure enough the short-squeeze ran out of ammo and slumped…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

2019 still looks oddly similar to 1998…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg
 

S&P slipped back down to its 100DMA

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

 

FANG stocks gave up all Monday’s gains…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds and stocks remain dramatically decoupled…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

In fact the correlation between bond yields and stocks (typically positive – higher yields, higher stock prices), is its most negative since 2007…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields continued their slide lower today after a brief bounce…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

With 30Y heading back towards 2.0% again…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

And the yield curve resumed flattening…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

And the Term structure-implied odds of a recession are now above 70%…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

After 6 straight days higher (to the highest since 2018), the dollar index slipped lower today…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

 

Cryptos were broadly lower today (Bitcoin held above $10k)…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

 

Silver outperformed notably on the day and oil prices dumped and pumped…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold prices bounced back above $1500…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

And Silver popped back above $17…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

Silver significantly outperformed gold on the day…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude tumbled after the US cash market open but was bid back to unchanged ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, bond markets are oddly alone in their volatility currently…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

And gold continues to track the world’s policymaker idiocy perfectly (Crypto has some catching up to do)

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

And the correlation between bonds (prices) and bullion (prices) has never been higher…

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

Source: Bloomberg

Safe-Haven bid anyone?

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar