Democrats are the “substantial favorites” to take back the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, according to the Cook Political Report.
“With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control,” David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report will say in an email to subscribers on Friday, according to Politico.
“A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930. The retirements of Speaker Paul Ryan (WI-01), as well as powerful committee chairs like Reps. Ed Royce (CA-39) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) and popular moderates like Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) and Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02), have given Democrats stellar pickup opportunities.”
Wasserman also notes that “of Republicans’ 42 incumbent-less seats, eight are in districts that voted for [Democratic candidate] Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent.
History is working against the GOP in many of those seats: we found that since 1992, in situations when a president’s party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column.”
Cook also changed Florida Republican Rep. Dennis Ross’ open seat to lean GOP from likely GOP, and Texas GOP Rep. Ted Poe’s open seat from solid Republican to likely Republican.
“[I]n a wave environment, 42 seats is a dangerous level of exposure: If Democrats win even eight of the 42 (our current ratings pin eight as Lean/Likely Democratic and four more as Toss Ups), they’ll already be over a third of the way to a majority.”
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