Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, “Almost Complete” Trade Deal “That Could Still Fail”

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Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, “Almost Complete” Trade Deal “That Could Still Fail”

Update: Trade deal ‘incomplete’

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

*  *  *

So… China trade deal done (ok, not really, but don’t tell Trump or the market), Fed is printing again (but don’t call it QE), an oil tanker is blown up in the MidEast and oil barely budges (nothing to worry about there either), Brexit Deal is increasingly likely (so leaving EU is a good thing now?)! Everything is awesome!

What Wall Of Worry? VIX tumbled to a 15 handle (but note the steepness of the vol term structure through the US primaries and blip around the election)…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

But, will The Fed still cut rates?

*ROSENGREN: CUTTING NOW ENCOURAGES RISK-TAKING AT WRONG TIME (wait what?!)

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

And if everything is so f**king awesome, why is The Fed opening its massive money spigot once again?

*ROSENGREN SAYS RESUMPTION OF FED BALANCE SHEET EXPANSION NOT QE (oh ok)

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

Ignore this…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

Because this…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

China stocks strengthened notably on the week as investors returned from Golden Week…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks also soared (with UK’s FTSE 250 exploding 4.2% higher today, biggest jump since May 2010)

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

US equities soared again today on the trade deal hype, extending yesterday’s gains…until the actual ‘news’ broke of the not-complete, could-still-fall-apart partial trade deal…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

 

Also erasing the October losses (nasdaq the big gainer) until the news hit and stocks faded…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

 

Futures show the chaos this week best…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

with today’s mini-flash-crashes and spikes…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

 

US equity gains were dominated by a massive two-day short-squeeze…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

Quants suffered as momo was battered…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL surged to a new record intraday high today but remains, very marginally, smaller in market cap than Microsoft (based on the latest available share count of course)…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

 

Treasury Bonds were clubbed like baby seals this week with yields surging 20-23bps…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields dropped very briefly below 2.00% on Sunday night/Monday morning, then exploded higher from mid-week (biggest 3-day jump since Trump’s election)…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve exploded steeper today with 3m10Y un-inverting (up a wopping 25bps this week, biggest jump sine Trump’s election)…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dumped as trade hopes soared (and Brexit hopes)…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

Cable soared a stunning 5 handles in the last two days, the biggest 2-day jump since Nov 2008 (even though -*TUSK SEES ‘NO REASON’ FOR OPTIMISM AFTER ‘3 YRS OF PROBLEMS’)…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore yuan surged on the trade hype – a strong few days after coming back from Golden Week…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

The Turkish Lira was monkeyhammered this week as Erdogan moved back into Syria…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos weakened for the second day in a row but Bitcoin and Ethereum managed to hold on to very modest gains…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

Oil ended the week the big winner as trade talk optimism juiced demand hype and gold was dropped like a used needle on Market Street as who needs safety when everything is awesome…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied up near $55 handle – highest since September…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Gold futures fell back below $1500…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

 

Finally, we wonder when this gets priced in…

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

It could never happen again, right?

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail"

Source: Bloomberg

And in summary:


Tyler Durden

Fri, 10/11/2019 – 16:02

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