Retail Sales Surge In July Thanks To Amazon’s Prime Day

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The last few months have seen extremely volatile swings in monthly retail sales but every rebound is heralded as evidence of “the strength of the consumer.”

Source: Bloomberg

So all eyes were on today’s July data, expected to rise for the 5th month in a row, and it did – crushing expectations with a headline retail sales surge of 0.7% MoM (+0.3% exp) – the biggest gain in four months.

More importantly, the Control Group – used for GDP calcs – surged 1.0% MoM, sending YoY gains dramatically higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Only three categories saw sales declines (including auto sales)…

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably, the non-store retailers (i.e. Amazon) saw a massive 2.8% MoM surge in sales thanks to Prime Day.

Source: Bloomberg

This is not a picture of an economy that needs more rate cuts Mr. Powell.