The last few months have seen extremely volatile swings in monthly retail sales but every rebound is heralded as evidence of “the strength of the consumer.”
So all eyes were on today’s July data, expected to rise for the 5th month in a row, and it did – crushing expectations with a headline retail sales surge of 0.7% MoM (+0.3% exp) – the biggest gain in four months.
More importantly, the Control Group – used for GDP calcs – surged 1.0% MoM, sending YoY gains dramatically higher…
Only three categories saw sales declines (including auto sales)…
Most notably, the non-store retailers (i.e. Amazon) saw a massive 2.8% MoM surge in sales thanks to Prime Day.
This is not a picture of an economy that needs more rate cuts Mr. Powell.