WTI and RBOB are trading lower since last night’s API data, but plunged as DOE reported a massive surprise 5.78mm crude build, a surprise gasoline build, and a new record for US crude production.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza notes that inventory draws across the petroleum value chain are supporting oil prices and refining margins, though unexpected strength in output is a counterweight.
“It’ll be interesting to see how the data will look today, especially with pressure ahead of Memorial Day,” says Tariq Zahir, commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC.
“We’ll be expecting to see a bit of a tick up in gasoline demand”
Crude -1.3mm (-1.9mm exp)
Cushing -822k (-250k exp)
Crude +5.778mm (-2mm exp)
Cushing -1.123mm (-250k exp)
Gasoline +1.883mm (-1.43mm exp)
Shockingly yuuuuuge crude build… and not helped by a big surprise gasoline build…
On the supply side, there has been a steeper than usual rise in rig counts since the start of April and production continues to surge to ever-increasing record highs as crude prices – although the last week saw only a modest rise of 2k b/d…A production decline in Alaska was more than offset by a 24,000 barrel-a-day increase in the Lower 48.
On the demand side of the equation, Bloomberg’s David Marino notes that gasoline is nearing $3 a gallon for the first time since 2014 as Memorial Day weekend approaches. The IEA, Total’s CEO and India’s oil minister all expressed concern last week that crude above $80 a barrel may deflate demand growth.
Crude exports slowed by 818,000 barrels a day, not helping the overall bearish picture for oil.
WTI/RBOB plunged after the DOE data…
To the week’s lows…
Brent continues to fade after failing to hold $80 once again…